AMD 5NM与英特尔7NM:谁的CPU将获胜?

时光旅行永远是一种风险。When you go to the past, there’s the usual dangers like making sure you don’t talk to your past self, not stepping on any bugs so you don’t trigger the butterfly effect, etc… and when you go to the future, there is the danger that your expectations could be a million miles off of what actually happens.

好吧,第二种类型的时间旅行是我们今天的风险:我们将及时推动投机性的飞跃,讨论AMD和Intel的未来CPU!

We’ll do our best to base our speculations on available evidence, in the hopes that they won’t be a百万miles off of reality (maybe only a thousand miles). So, let’s take a look at some future manufacturing tech, and see who might come out on top in the next era of the ongoing battle between red and blue.

时间旅行,走!

这里的计划是,我们将比较和对比AMD和Intel的一些即将到来的较小的模具包。这将结合当前发布的时间表,一些有关性能的知情估计以及一小剂量的魔术8球。

现在,我们还在等什么?让我们深入了解即将到来的多汁细节!

英特尔7nm(流星湖)

Overview

不幸的是,对于英特尔来说,他们是目前的追赶者。在AMD令人印象深刻的Ryzen阵容中,当代版本逐渐黯然失色。他们最近的11代CPU版本仅在预算中才真正受欢迎,因为他们的所有内容(包括当前一代)的价格很低,因为他们可以忍受克服相对令人不安的性能数字。

不过,这不是整个图片。它确实有帮助他们 - 大概有点,大概是 - 他们是唯一拥有一贯可用股票的品牌,AMD仍在努力跟上对处理器的需求(稍后再详细介绍)。

Regardless of whether these couple small points in Intel’s favor are outweighed by AMD’s multi-generation dominance, there is light at the end of the tunnel for Intel:

流星湖looks close to its final design stage, with英特尔的新首席执行官帕特·盖辛格(Pat Gelsinger)宣布他们将在今年晚些时候将其钉住(至少就IP而言)。

现在,可悲的是,这确实意味着我们将向2023年寻找此版本。然而,7nm的版本将使我们得到什么?

This is a tough one to tell for sure, especially in light of the ‘back-engineered 10nm design to 14nm’ for Intel’s 11th gen, which has been met with a solid ‘meh’ from the tech field.

但是,与该发行版不同,流星湖看起来像英特尔重新融入事物的稳定尝试。

“但这不是英特尔'制作CPU!”

Some were surprised that this development is in partnership with TSMC. The manufacturer should be well known to AMD and Apple fans, but Intel has traditionally made its own CPUs.

去TSMC制作其即将到来的零件很重要,原因有两个:

  1. At least internally, Intel are not afraid to cut their losses on a design. Part of the problem with 10nm was Intel trying (and failing) for so many years to get it to work. This demonstrates to a lot of Intel’s partners that they now prefer to just get a good product out the door.
  2. TSMC has a proven track record. Honestly, at this point, when you’re dealing with such small margins in the design manufacturing process, it makes sense to go to a company which is already successfully shipping small architecture designs.

期望有什么进步

一般来说,第一代新process will see modest improvements. For Intel, the big targets for it now are probably cooling and power delivery. However, there could be some reasonable IPC improvements along with this (but nothing too crazy).

Where the 7nm process comes into its own, though, will be in the improvements Intel are touting with its ‘Foveros chip-stacking’ design. This should in theory allow them to jump up in core count to once again go like for like with AMD (if not higher), all while being far cooler and more power-efficient when than Intel’s beyond-aged 14nm process.

更重要的是,一旦释放流星湖,目的是让英特尔回到their “Tick-Tock” approachto shrinking and then optimizing the company’s chip technologies about every two years.

My Magic 8 Ball Prediction

“不要指望它”

因此,这就是我认为会发生的事情。英特尔的旗舰桌面系统CPU看起来如下:

The, Ahem, “Intel i9-14900K”

Cores/Threads:12 core, 24 thread

Base Clock:4.2GHz

Boost(单核):5.75GHz

Boost (all core):5GHz

L3缓存:30MB

TDP:105W

成本:$499

There is an awful lot of speculation here, but some details—like the cost—are things I’m more comfortable guessing, because Intel will have to be at least a touch aggressive on pricing (based on the rapid price cuts on their 11th generation).

I hope that the jump into 7nm will allow Intel to push their clocks higher (both single and all-core), which, along with IPC improvements and the jump back to higher core counts (thanks to the smaller die), will make them competitive again.

Let’s be honest, Intel could use something along those lines right now! But even in a couple years, we probably wouldn’t complain.

However, I’m saying the Magic 8 Ball reports ‘Don’t count on it’ because I’m not entirely convinced Intel can reach these idealized expectations. In fairness to them, AMD struggled with their first-gen Zen CPUs. It was only really their 2000- and 3000-series Ryzen options where they started to gain steam, and 5000-series chips where things took to the skies. That’s a lot of iteration before being top dog. Which Intel really needs to do to get things right, and get back to the top of the pile.

AMD 5nm (Zen 4 / Zen 5 “Raphael”)

So, with AMD already using TSMC too, as you might imagine the pandemic has been a spanner in the works for their long-term plans.

On paper, Zen 3 is a success. It has been a wildly popular launch, and is a great way to effectively sign off on this generation of CPUs running on the AM4 socket. It’s a return to form for team red, and a good situation for builders to be in, as competition gives us far more performance for our money.

但是,现在AMD有趣的是,他们在这一点上几乎正在与自己竞争。我说“几乎”是因为英特尔(尽管有问题)肯定仍然具有竞争力。

The AM4 socket has not been without issues for AMD. They had to quickly backtrack onchipset compatibility with B450 vs B550。现在消费者已经内化的消息rom AMD that everything after Zen 3will需要更换插座。

期望有什么进步

据报道,ZEN 4热那亚工程样本的执行速度比现有的ZEN 3 CPU的速度快29%,并且以相同的时钟速度和核心计数。

So, although Genoa is the EPYC (server) design, the core architecture is more-or-less what will be in Zen 4 desktop solutions too. This should rightfully scare Intel, as they’ve only just got themselves more or less back on-par with single-core performance in their 11th-gen CPUs. Zen 3 (specifically the 5950X) still rules the roost here. So, if the improvement is even vaguely close to 29%… watch out, Intel.

As with the previous generation’s improvements, we can expect some reasonable clock advances (let’s see 5GHz+ on the box, please) while also seeing some modest improvements to cooling and power delivery.

So, When is it Coming?

Original plans had EPYC chips “Genoa” and the mainstream CPUs “Raphael” making an appearance in late 2022. However, as mentioned above, TSMC (like every other manufacturer) has struggled hugely to meet demand through 2020 and 2021, and there’s no easy estimates available on how long before things are normalized.

To add a bit of spice to the mix, though, my personal prediction is that this will slip into 2023, right on time to compete with Intel’s 7nm offering.

My Magic 8 Ball Prediction

“It is decidedly so”

因此,这就是我认为会发生的事情。The flagship desktop system CPU by AMD may look as follows:

哎呀,“ AMD Ryzen 9 6950x”

Cores/Threads:16 core, 32 thread

Base Clock:4.0GHz

Boost(单核):5.4GHz

Boost (all core):4.95GHz

L3缓存:64MB

TDP:105W

成本:$ 749

就像我的英特尔猜测一样,这里有很多猜测。我认为,这个怪物的价格可能比当前5950倍的799美元价格降低了,因此它不会在自己的岛上坐在那里。再说一次,AMD并不需要这样做,所以谁知道!

I hope that the continued development into 5nm won’t result in more cores, but rather more optimization of the CPU itself. (At this point, AMD’s high-tier chips have far more cores than most programs know what do with, so developers need some time to play catch-up.) Improving the IPC and boost clock performance would be a huge bonus, although I suspect I may possibly be over-estimating the scale of that jump in boost clocks.

That is why, although fundamentally the core should become a little more efficient when going down to 5nm, the TDP stays the same as our current generation. That push for higher boosts is going to need some power to support it for sure. It’s more about how far AMD can push that balance that by 2023.

Basically, a lot of these guesses come down my own suspicion that AMD will remain on top of the pile into 2023. They have a proven design now, and they’re improving on it with each generation of Ryzen. 5nm was always the “end” of the journey as far as they’ve told us so far. Yet, with TSMC testing their 3nm process, it might not be too long into the future before we see Ryzen chips on that…

谁将赢得未来的CPU战争?

You know, it was only four years ago that I was写关于Ryzen产品的发布for the first time.

想一想。在四年中,AMD从本质上从主流CPU领域的无处往来到了绝对顶级竞争对手。他们有一个计划,(尽管有很多)他们仍然坚持下去。

另一方面,英特尔现在是过去时代的主人,似乎无法休息。他们的第11代CPU虽然很好,但并没有像AMD近年来那样激发买家。

It is due to this recent track record that I’m giving my prediction on the winner of the short-term fight to AMD. Looking forward from now to 2023, they are likely to remain in a far better space than Intel as they are showing no signs of slowing down (at least for now).

也就是说,再考虑我刚才说的话。在短短四年内,市场发生了巨大变化。在四年的时间里,它很可能再次发生。所以:

最终魔术8球预测

“Ask again later”

但是你怎么看?

Am I simply being an AMD fanboy? Are Intel hiding something major to change the game that I’ve overlooked?

在评论中让我知道!

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